TL;DR: Key Takeaways
Cold email response rates have dropped to 1-5%, with open rates declining from 36% to under 28% in the past year.
Commercial services buyers ignore generic outreach because it lacks property context and relevance.
Inbox fatigue, spam filters, and lack of personalization have made cold tactics nearly obsolete.
Warm outreach using property intelligence and buyer intent signals generates 3-5x better engagement.
The future belongs to teams that reach prospects when they're actively searching for solutions.
The Numbers Don't Lie: Cold Outreach Is Collapsing
Cold outreach is dying, and you’ve probably felt the impact of its demise.
Your open rates keep dropping. Your reply rates are in the low single digits. Your reps are burning hours on lists that never convert.
This isn't a slump. It's a structural collapse of “the old ways” of prospecting.
Response Rates Are at Historic Lows
Cold email response rates have fallen to between 1% and 5% across most industries, according to a 2025 study from Belkins.
Open rates have dropped from 36% to 27.7% in just one year.
Cold calls convert at roughly 2%, meaning your team needs to make 50 calls just to book a single meeting.
For commercial services teams, these numbers are often worse. With the competition buying contact lists and paying for leads, your prospects (facility managers, property owners, operations directors, and engineers) are drowning in pitches from vendors.
Most of which aren’t even relevant to their needs.
Why Commercial Services Teams Feel It Harder
This is especially difficult for commercial services sales teams because you're not selling software where a generic pain point can create curiosity. You're selling HVAC systems, roofing replacements, janitorial contracts, solar installations, elevator maintenance, and building automation systems.
These are property-specific solutions.
A generic email about "increasing efficiency" or a similar buzzword (which is what they see in their inbox all day long) doesn't work when the prospective buyer needs to know you understand their exact building, their requirements, equipment, and their operational challenges.
Cold outreach fails because it can't address their exact needs at scale.
By the Numbers
5.1% - The average cold email response rate for B2B companies in 2025, down from 7% in 2024 (Belkins, 2025)
27.7% - The current year’s cold email open rate, down from 36% the previous year (Belkins, 2025)
2% - Cold call success rates for booking meetings (LinkedIn Sales Solutions, 2024)
79% - Business buyers who expect sellers to act as trusted advisors (consultants), not product pushers (Gartner, 2024)
60% - B2B buyers who prefer no contact from sales reps during their research process (Forrester, 2024)
What's Driving the Decline of Cold Outreach
Three things (let's call them “forces”) have recently collided to destroy cold outreach effectiveness. And, none of them are going away.
Inbox Overload and Audience Saturation
The first thing killing cold outreach is the sheer volume of messages.
Decision-makers receive between 100 and 300 emails per day. Recent estimates say that up to 30% of those messages are cold outreach.
This means they’re receiving between 30 and 100 “pitches” each day.
Everyone is doing cold outreach, so your team's messages get deleted before they're read because they look like everything else.
Smarter Spam Filters Are Blocking Everything
Cold calls automatically get sent to voicemail without the user's input. If the phone number you’re calling from isn’t listed in their contacts, it’s immediately filtered.
Email providers are doing the same thing. Most now use advanced AI-powered filters that catch mass outreach before it even hits the inbox.
Sales messaging and generic language are two of the biggest triggers for these filters. Phrases like "I wanted to reach out" or "thought you might be interested" (and 100 others) get sent to spam or junk on autopilot.
Your reps think they're doing the right activities; sending emails and making calls, but the recipient never sees them.
Buyers Expect Relevance, Not Volume
Finally, modern buyers do their own research.
With review sites and today’s access to information (thanks to the internet), 79% of B2B buyers expect sellers to act as trusted advisors and consultants who can understand their unique needs and specific situation, according to a 2024 Gartner study mentioned earlier.
Also, Forrester Research found that buyers purchasing products and services for their companies prefer little to no contact from salespeople during the research process.
They want relevant information, advice, consultations, and guidance from trusted advisors, but they don’t want to be pitched.
This is why we’re seeing the pendulum swing away from cold approaches and lean heavily into warm outreach (which we’ll discuss in a moment).
"The average B2B cold email response rate has dropped to below 5.1%, down from 7% last year, while open rates have fallen from 36% to 27.7%."
If you look at the data, 2 out of every 100 cold calls your team tracks as an activity, and 5 out of every 100 emails, will actually receive a response.
So that’s the “state of outreach” - now, let’s shift the conversation to why this is relevant to commercial services providers and how to fix it.
The Commercial Services Problem: Generic Outreach Meets Property-Based Sales
Let's get specific about why cold outreach fails so badly in commercial services.
You're Selling to Buildings, Not Just Businesses
Your sale isn't abstract like in SaaS.
In software, you can look at a marketing team, notice that they have 10 people, and say something like, “Our software saves each person on your marketing team 20 hours each month, all for $15 per seat.”
Doing the math, 20 hours per person for a 10-person marketing team is easily worth $150.00 per month.
But you’re selling systems that start at $20k and go up into the millions. They require installation into physical properties with specific square footage, equipment, infrastructure, usage patterns, and compliance requirements, and budgets need to be approved by owners, managers, and engineers - all of which add complexity to your sale.
But it also means that a cold email to a hospital’s director of facilities needs to acknowledge the hospital's current situation. Recent expansion permits, its existing HVAC infrastructure, concerns about patient care downtime, and regulatory standards.
A generic pitch about "energy savings" gets ignored because it doesn't reflect the complexity of the decision they need to make or the impact of that decision if a vendor relationship goes wrong.
The "Driving for Dollars" Trap
Another problem is with the traditional prospecting approach that many commercial services sales teams still use.
Reps drive territories looking for properties that "might need" their services, note addresses, find contact info, then send cold emails.
This “old-school” approach burns the reps' most valuable resource: time.
A rep might spend 3-4 hours building a list of 20 properties, only to get zero responses when they send a message. And to book two meetings per week, that rep needs to send 200 emails and make 100 calls.
Meanwhile, properties in that same territory are actively showing buying signals - recent permits, ownership changes, and search queries that the rep never sees.
The problem isn't effort. It's information.
The Shift to Warm Outreach: How Signals Change Everything
Warm outreach isn't just "nicer" cold outreach. It's a completely different approach.
What Warm Outreach Actually Means - The "When" Behind the "Who"
Warm outreach starts with what’s known as an “intent signal.” A signal is an event that indicates that the prospect has a need.
For example, the prospect does a Google search for “commercial HVAC installers in [City].” This is known as transactional intent. In other words, the prospect has done something that indicates they are actively looking for solutions.
These signals come in the form of searches, website visits, ownership or leadership changes, filed permits, and more.
If you reach out to someone who’s actively showing interest, the conversation is completely different.
You're not interrupting them. You're entering a conversation they've already started. Instead of "Why should I care?" the question becomes "Are you the right one to help me with this?"
For this reason, warm (signal-based outreach) converts at around 32% (6.3x higher than cold), with lead-to-meeting rates of up to 8.7% (7.25x higher than cold) according to a study of more than 14000 campaigns across seven different industries.
But you still need to know where to find these signals and how to use them properly. This is where three elements come together: the signal (when), the property (what), and the contact (who).
Property Intelligence: The "What" That Makes Your Outreach Relevant
Once you know a prospect is in-market, you need to understand what they actually need. Property intelligence gives you building-level context that makes your message relevant.
Property intelligence platforms like Convex provide property-level insights, including a building's size, age, ownership structure, permit history, and tenant makeup. Without this data, your messages will sound generic because they won’t have the necessary context.
Instead of "We offer HVAC services," you can say something like, "I noticed your 120,000-square-foot medical facility filed a mechanical permit. We recently helped [xyz hospital] with a similar phased HVAC replacement, where minimizing disruption to patient care was critical. I’ll be in the neighborhood next week, worth a 20-minute walk-through to see if we can help?”
That level of specificity is impossible without property-level data. And, it’s what separates warm outreach from a cold “spray-and-pray” approach.
But, you also need “the who” (with verified contact data), so your sales reps aren’t wasting hours hunting for contact data and messaging gatekeepers whose only job is making sure they don’t get through to decision makers.
This is where sales intelligence is a must.
Sales Intelligence: The "Who" Behind Every Decision
Knowing when a property is in-market and the details of the property isn't enough to make a sale - your reps also need to know who to contact.
Sales intelligence provides verified contact data for the actual decision-makers at the property level. Facility directors, operations managers, property owners, engineers, and maintenance personnel who control purchasing decisions.
The best property intelligence in the world doesn't matter if you're unable to reach the right person. Sales intelligence ensures your message reaches the people with budget authority and decision-making power, not just a general inbox or front-desk receptionist.
When you combine all three - intent signals (when), property intelligence (what), and sales intelligence (who) - you create outreach that's timely, relevant, and targeted. That's why it converts 6-7x higher than cold tactics.
At Convex, we like to say, “Right person, right message, right time.” Because that’s what a combination of these tools allows you to do.
Now, let’s talk about how you reach these warm prospects using the tools we’ve talked about.
How Modern Teams Find Warm Prospects
A sales rep’s workflow looks completely different when you start with signals instead of lists.
The workflow looks like this:
Step 1: Identify Properties Showing Buying Signals
Property intelligence uses a map-based visualization interface similar to Google Maps or MapQuest.
The rep can log in, outline their territory on the map, and immediately see which properties are in their market. Then, they can click signals and see which accounts are actively searching for services like yours.
Maybe it's a hospital that’s searching for janitorial services or a retail center that just filed an HVAC permit. Maybe it's a property that recently changed ownership or hired a new property manager.
These aren't random prospects. They're showing intent.
Step 2: Understand the Property's Context
Before reaching out, reps click on the property's full profile. They see square footage, building age, permit history, ownership structure, and tenant information.
This context informs the message. Instead of "We offer building automation services," the rep can say,
"I saw the electrical and mechanical permits filed for your 250,000-square-foot medical manufacturing facility. Most plants your size upgrading systems face a choice: replace everything at once (expensive, disruptive) or integrate old and new controls to extend useful life while cutting energy costs 20-30%.
We've worked with similar facilities to phase in building automation that works with existing pneumatic systems. Worth a brief conversation to see if our approach might fit your needs?”
But that level of specificity is also why personalized outreach can take 2+ hours. So you need another tool to help you write tailored emails and draft phone call scripts at scale.
This is where Generative AI becomes a game-changer.
Step 3: Personalize Outreach Using Real Data
Unlike general AI tools that require prompting, Generative AI can create personalized messages from the data.
In short, Generative AI takes the signals, property data, contact information, as well as information about your company and services, and drafts personalized emails and phone scripts at scale (pro tip: you can use these scripts for video messages on Loom, too).
These messages reference the specific property, acknowledge the intent signal, and connects your solution to their actual situation.
That way, your reps aren't writing every email from scratch. But they're also not sending generic templates.
The AI does the heavy lifting, and the rep reviews and makes final changes before sending.
Step 4: Follow Up Inside a CRM
Once the conversation starts, everything flows into your CRM. Follow-up tasks, notes, deal stages, and next steps all stay organized.
How MSD Went From 100 Cold Calls Per Week to $42M in Pipeline
Before adopting a signal-based approach, Nick Davis and his team at Mechanical Services and Design in Dayton, Ohio, were grinding through traditional prospecting.
Reps made 100 cold calls per week, drove around town looking for buildings that "looked like a good fit," and researched prospects at the local library.
Most calls got stuck at the gatekeeper.
Nick realized that "throwing numbers and people at the problem" wouldn't drive the growth they needed. The team was "losing time we weren't going to get back."
After implementing property intelligence and buyer intent signals, the entire workflow changed. Reps started their day seeing which properties in their territory were showing active buying signals - recent search history, permit filings, ownership changes, and facility expansions. They could research building details and find verified decision-maker contacts before ever picking up the phone.
The result? Over the last 18 months, MSD has sourced over $42 million in pipeline using warm, signal-based outreach instead of cold calling into the void.
"Things really transformed once we saw Convex," Nick explained.
The team now uses the platform three times per week on average, building campaigns around properties that match their ideal client profile - and reaching the right people at the right time.
You can read more about their results by clicking this link to MSD’s case study.
What Better Tools Mean for Your Team
Tools like Convex were built for the way your team sells. So you’re not pasting together 5-6 disconnected tools, hoping they all integrate and sync correctly - everything happens in one place.
Reps Spend Less Time Researching, More Time Selling
Traditional prospecting and admin work eat 60-70% of a rep's day, according to Salesforce. They're Googling contacts, searching LinkedIn for names and titles, digging through permit databases, trying to find decision-maker phone numbers with Hunter.io.
This decreases team morale, wastes time, and eventually ends up costing the company a lot of money.
With property intelligence, that research happens automatically.
Reps see properties showing intent, full property profiles, verified contacts, and suggested messaging - all in one place.
They go from "I need to build a list" to "I'm reaching out to qualified prospects" in minutes.
Higher Engagement Because Outreach Is Relevant
When your message references the prospect's specific property and timing, they respond. Not always, but at a significantly higher rate than before.
It's not magic—it's relevance.
Facility managers get dozens of generic pitches per month. They respond to the one that says, "I see you're expanding cooling capacity based on the permit filed last week. Here's how we handled a similar project at [comparable property]. Worth a 10-minute chat?"
Faster Ramp Time for New Hires
Finally, new reps used to spend months learning territory and building lists.
HVAC companies like Comfort Systems say that the average rep takes 6-9 months to “ramp” or become fully productive.
With a system that surfaces intent signals and provides property context, new reps are productive in 6-9 weeks.
The reason for decreased ramp times is that new reps don’t need to drive around taking notes, making cold calls, or memorizing every building in their territory.
The system shows them which properties matter today and generates personalized outreach based on real data.
Platforms like Convex take the most time-consuming administrative tasks and virtually automate them.
Making the Transition to Warm Conversations
You don't have to abandon your sales systems overnight. Most teams layer in the tools to create warm outreach over time. Here’s what we’d recommend after working with hundreds of companies since 2017.
Start by Auditing Your Current Performance
Look at the last quarter. What was your email open rate? Response rate? Meetings booked per 100 contacts? And, time spent per lead?
These numbers will give you a baseline (where you are today).
Most teams discover their cold outreach is performing way worse than they thought and that the “activities’ that they’re tracking aren’t generating the sales pipeline that they need to hit quarterly goals.
Layer in Intent Signals Without Abandoning What Works
If you have existing relationships or warm channels that work, keep them. Add property intelligence and intent signals to complement what you're already doing.
Maybe you still attend trade shows, have a referral network, partnerships, or an inbound motion - great, keep all of it.
But layer in tools that allow you to build a consistent pipeline rather than waiting for the phones to ring.
Train Your Team on Property Intelligence Software
Next, train your team.
Show them their current results.
I talked to a sales rep several days ago who said he was sending 200 emails to generate 2-3 meetings per week. He was demoralized and frustrated with their current approach - and your team may be too.
Show how solutions like Convex do the admin work for them. Walk them through reading property profiles, interpreting intent signals, and using personalized messaging tools.
The transition usually takes a few weeks, not months.
The Bottom Line
Cold outreach worked when inboxes were manageable, and buyers had fewer options. Sales was just a numbers game.
Not anymore.
Your prospects get hundreds of emails each week. They can ignore generic pitches simply because tomorrow they’ll get a dozen more, and a simple Google search can answer most of their questions.
Today’s buyers expect you to know their property, understand their challenges, and show up when they're actually ready to buy.
Not when your team is under pressure to hit quota.
Signals and intelligence power warm outreach, compressing the prospecting cycle from hours to minutes. It turns research from guessing into targeting and replaces volume with relevance.
Six months from now, your team will either be having warm conversations with qualified prospects - or still grinding through cold lists that convert at less than 5%.
The choice isn't whether warm outreach works. The data has already settled that. The choice is whether you make the shift now or watch your competitors do it first.
Ready to stop guessing who needs your services and begin having warm conversations? Book a demo of Convex to see how our platform helps commercial services teams find prospects when they're actually ready to buy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is cold outreach in sales?
Cold outreach is the practice of contacting potential customers who have no prior relationship with your company. This typically involves cold calling, cold emailing, or unsolicited LinkedIn messages sent to prospects who haven't expressed interest or interacted with your brand.
Why has cold email become less effective in recent years?
Cold email effectiveness has declined due to inbox saturation (decision-makers receive 100 to 300 vendor emails weekly), increasingly sophisticated spam filters, lack of personalization at scale, and changing buyer expectations. Response rates have fallen from 7% to around 2-5% in most industries, according to Belkins (2025).
What is warm outreach, and how is it different?
Warm outreach targets prospects who have shown buying interest through observable signals - permit filings, website visits, search activity, or equipment age-outs. Unlike cold outreach, which interrupts prospects randomly, warm outreach reaches people when they're actively evaluating solutions, typically generating much higher engagement rates.
How do buyer intent signals work for commercial services?
Buyer intent signals are observable indicators that a property is likely in-market for your services. These include search activity, permit applications (HVAC, electrical, structural, etc.), property ownership changes, and facility expansions. These signals help sales teams prioritize outreach to prospects with immediate needs.
Can I still use cold outreach as part of my strategy?
Cold outreach isn't completely dead; it still converts at 2-5%, but it should account for only a small fraction of your overall strategy. Focus most of your efforts on warm outreach, ads, inbound, partnerships, referrals, and other lead-generation channels. Reserve cold tactics for highly targeted scenarios where you have a compelling reason to reach out. If your cold outreach consistently delivers sub-3% response rates, reallocate those resources to warm channels.
What role does property intelligence play in modern outreach?
Property intelligence provides the context that makes outreach relevant. It includes building attributes (square footage, age, equipment), ownership and tenant information, permit history, transaction records, and facility-specific data. This information allows sales teams to craft messages that reference the prospect's actual property, rather than sending generic pitches.
How do I measure the success of warm outreach compared to cold outreach?
Track these key metrics for both approaches: response rate (% of contacts who reply), meeting booking rate (% who agree to a call or demo), time-to-first-meeting (days from initial contact), and cost-per-qualified-lead. Warm outreach typically shows significantly higher response rates, 40-60% faster sales cycles, and significantly lower cost-per-lead due to reduced research time.
What tools help commercial services teams transition to warm outreach?
Effective warm outreach requires three to four core capabilities: property intelligence (building data, permits, ownership), buyer-intent tracking (signals based on active searches), and contact verification (accurate decision-maker information). Platforms like Convex, which are designed for commercial services, integrate these elements with CRM systems, personalized messaging tools, and workflow automation.
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